Polish labour market may be rescued by Belarusians

What is your assessment of the current situation in the recruitment intermediary market?

We saw a historically strong market growth in the second half of last year. Despite Covid, the economy was already rebuilding its potential. Then, a severe slowdown occurred in the first quarter this year; there was virtually zero demand for new workers. So much so that for a month and a half we even declared that the market was employer-driven. The results of the Polish Labour Market Barometer also showed a change in the trend. But it was only temporary; such a brief disruption of a trend of more than eight years is quite irrelevant. We are now witnessing a somewhat delayed, but very strong, kick-start of the economy. Since May there has been a huge demand for employees. In numbers, this is over 100,000 vacancies in employment offices and 191,000 new jobs created by the Polish economy this year. The number of Polish employees available is slowly declining. This is obvious as a lot of people started to leave for work in Germany and the Netherlands again in the second half of the year. On the other hand, according to data from labour offices, 960,000 Ukrainians came to Poland despite last year’s announcements that more than 2 million of them were waiting to come to Poland. The data pertain to the first half of the year and it is still a record number. This is the same as in 2019, which means we have completely cancelled the effects of Covid. However, from the point of view of our industry or the Polish employer, the situation is becoming more and more difficult. Even the Ukrainian source is beginning to suffer from shortages of human resources reaching 20 to 30 per cent. Asia is not an alternative here; these employees are not well adapted in economic and social terms. The assimilation of Asians with Poles is very slow, as they form their own enclaves, which is influenced not only by social or ideological differences, but also by communication difficulties that do not allow these employees to smoothly integrate into the Polish economy.

How can this be remedied?

In real terms, the labour shortage is 600-700 thousand people which means that the economy would be able to assimilate the movement that is now forming in Belarus. I would like to point out that, regarding Ukraine, initially there were tens of thousands of people coming to Poland. They encouraged further tens of thousands, and the number grew to hundreds of thousands. Today, there are millions of Ukrainians working in Poland. Let me mention that the record numbers of foreigners registered with ZUS is over 700,000. Belarus is ideal for us in terms of the labour market. There is historical proximity, a certain common sense of threat coming from the East, which is also helpful in the relations with the Ukrainian people. There is also linguistic and cultural proximity. Moreover, the education curricula or school profiles are similar to those in Poland. In other words, a person arriving from Belarus in Poland is perfectly suited to our environment. We estimate that 0.5 million Belarusians could currently find work in Poland, and they are willing to do so. A sense of security is also important, which was also a factor that attracted the Ukrainians in the early days.

It seems, however, that Ukrainians come to earn money in Poland and return home. Given the situation in Belarus, would it not be the case that the Belarusians will want to stay in Poland and perhaps bring their families?

This seems to be the dilemma of the Belarusian authorities. On the one hand, looking at Ukraine, travelling for work means, among other things, a huge flow of money from Poland to Ukraine, and this money feeds the Ukrainian economy - it creates demand and drives retail purchases within Ukraine. So, in theory, the government of Belarus could regard the possibility of its citizens working in Poland as a positive sign. But, on the other hand, it seems that a certain threshold of pain has been broken, and there is a concern that if the border with Poland becomes open and people can go to work, they and their families may never come back. We saw a similar situation in Poland in the 1980s. A major political change would be needed here. Such opening would be of great benefit to Poland, as Belarus would provide us with a source of much needed labour which we are slowly beginning to run out of.

What is the current scale of arrivals from Belarus to Poland for work?

There are currently tens of thousands of people. However, I would like to point out that economic and political action on the part of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, aimed at improving the relations with Belarus, would be needed. Although it is very difficult, I believe that it is in the interests of our economy and in the interests of society, because we do not have much of an alternative in terms of the flow of workers from the East, from places that are culturally close. Belarus is currently in the spotlight. I think it is worth trying to improve our relations, to achieve a certain opening for citizens of Belarus who want to come to Poland, to work here and experience a different quality of life. And to go back with new ideas and a new outlook on life.

Can you identify any specialisations among the Belarusian citizens who come to work in Poland, or are there different trades?

There is a very interesting situation with regard to IT specialists, where we have been slightly overtaken by Ukraine which offers them preferential taxes. Actually, it is more profitable for Ukrainians, and not only, to work from there, and quite often it is remote work, because in the case of IT professionals their actual physical location does not really matter. Many Belarusians work for Ukrainian companies. Nonetheless, Belarus remains a source of IT specialists, but also of medical and similar workers, carers and a wide range of professions in which Poland is currently experiencing a shortage of people.