A lot is happening in geopolitics. Which processes will most profoundly shape the future of the world?
From an economic and technological standpoint, Sino-U.S. relations are the most critical. Asia is leading the world in the development of fully productised technologies. American know-how is transformed into market-ready products, but it is Asia (China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, etc.) that dominates this space. The technology war between China and the U.S. impacts the pace of innovation and will determine which nation gains dominance in various sectors. Overlaying this with Sino-U.S. tensions, China's efforts to expel Americans from the Western Pacific, and the U.S.'s attempts to maintain and strengthen its military presence with allies, reveals a complex and dynamic situation.
China’s stance toward Russia appears ambiguous, as the signals it sends are contradictory.
This is a complex issued. Putin and Xi Jinping maintain a notably strong personal relationship. On the other hand, these two countries harbour little affection for each other. Historically, China and Russia have not been close allies, with the exception of a brief period in the 1950s. Their relationship is marked by coolness and caution; they lack mutual trust and are not allies. Moreover, China and Russia rely on each other in the international political arena. The focus is primarily on the UN Security Council, including vetoes and resolutions, as well as expanding China's influence within international institutions. However, for the Chinese, the economic agenda remains a top priority. In this context, Russia is not the primary concern; instead, the focus is on the U.S., Europe, and Southeast Asia. China is increasingly directing its exports towards Southeast Asia, shifting its trade away from Europe and the U.S. China and Russia support each other in certain areas while competing in others, driven by mutual distrust.
Does it serve China's interests for the war in Ukraine to come to an end?
Yes, but not at the expense of a Russian defeat. China disapproves of the war in Ukraine because it disrupts their strategic manoeuvres. It is more about Russia's relationship with the U.S. and Europe. The more this situation weakens the U.S., the more advantageous it is for China. On the other hand, China requires security and robust trade relations with Europe. The ongoing war is not helping. I believe Xi Jinping would prefer to see peace in Ukraine.
On one hand, the EU seeks to maintain trade relations with China. On the other hand, the EU is increasing tariffs on Chinese products.
The European Union is facing significant challenges. China has the capacity to flood global markets with products and eliminate nearly all competition, as its factories often struggle to sell goods domestically. They are able to achieve minimal profit margins on products, which makes them increasingly competitive. A prime example is electric cars: they are often superior to European models and significantly more affordable.
Is it true that China’s government is subsidising production?
Yes, but it does so through various indirect methods. China is only partially centralised. Different provinces compete with each other and provide subsidies to their local factories. It is a complex system. The EU relies on China for a successful green transition. It requires solar panels, electric cars, and advanced Chinese technology. However, this situation is economically disadvantageous for the EU. The EU is currently facing significant challenges. Additionally, there is the challenge of regulating financial flows from China. Should these moneys be embraced with open arms, or should we reject them? There are many challenges. Poland needs to enhance its analytical capacity to assess the extent of our knowledge about the Chinese presence in Poland and its implications for us. We lack a clear understanding of what we want from a Chinese presence. For example, the Chinese are increasing greenfield investments and beginning to establish factories in Europe. These investments are beneficial, but are they all safe and advantageous for the economy in the long term? These are the dilemmas we confront. Poland should carefully consider which investments to attract, focusing on those who align with our interests, rather than welcoming everyone indiscriminately. European investment screening benefits us by taking on the task of evaluation, so we no longer have to handle it ourselves.
