– Back in the 1970s, there was widespread talk about the impending end of oil, with claims that reserves would last only 50 years. Now, fifty years later, we can still say that oil reserves are sufficient for nearly another 50 years, despite consumption being several times higher than it was half a century ago, said Leszek Wiwała, President of the Polish Organisation of Petroleum Industry and Trade, during the debate titled ‘The Twilight of Oil: Pipe Dream or Realistic Scenario?’ at the Economic Forum in Karpacz.
– At present, the twilight of oil appears to be on the horizon, but the process is unfolding very slowly. A shift towards low-carbon, alternative fuels is undeniably necessary. While oil consumption will steadily decline, particularly in Europe and the United States, countries like India and China are expected to significantly increase their use for transportation over the next two decades –more than offsetting the reductions seen in the West, noted Leszek Wiwała.
Goals versus reality
In her mandate to the new European Commission, President Ursula von der Leyen reaffirmed the proposal for a 90% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040. According to the European Commission’s analytical reports, fossil fuel consumption within the Union is projected to decrease by 74% by that time.
– Realistically, however, the 'twilight of oil' will largely depend on the pace at which low- and zero-carbon energy sources are developed, cautioned Aneta Wilmańska, director of Orlen’s Brussels office.
The International Energy Agency predicts that global oil demand will peak in 2029. A year later, demand is expected to decline, driven by the growth of renewable energy sources (RES) and increasing government pressure to implement decarbonization policies.
