What should be Poland's relationship with China? On the one hand, there are contacts between the authorities; on the other, there is reluctance to accept China as it is Putin's ally. Is Poland dependent on Putin's ally and are Poland’s decisions determined by the war? Is China really allied with Russia?
To some extent. China is not offering us security. They can offer us commodities and commerce. Poland is the most important part of NATO's eastern flank. As long as the war in Ukraine continues, Polish-Chinese relations cannot become ordinary.
What would a peace forced by the Chinese change?
It would change a lot. It would start a new phase of the reconstruction of Ukraine. Then the question is whether it would be rebuilt by the West or by the Chinese. Zelenskyy and his government have indicated that they expect Chinese investments. Polish-Chinese relations have not been normal ever since 1989, because of the basis of these relations – 4 June 1989. We had the first elections after the Round Table talks, they had the Tiananmen Square massacre. This has affected our relations for a long time.
What are the obvious obstacles to China's development?
The biggest one is the one-man rule, as it means the return of the emperor. Previously there was collective leadership and it was remarkably successful. One-man rule can be effective in the short term because it is quick to react. China's history proves that in the long term it is a recipe for disaster. Added to this are the long-term structural threats to generations. China is ageing rapidly, faster than Europe. The property development industry (which accounts for a third of China's GDP) has been deregulated. The attempt to regulate it has caused big property developers to go bankrupt. This means a loss of billions of dollars and the threat that people might not receive the promised housing. The next challenges are the ramifications of COVID-19, inflation and the break in supply chains. China has sided with Russia after the attack on Ukraine. China's image in the Western world has rapidly declined. The country is trying to rebuild its image, but the one-man rule renders it unsuccessful. This is a big structural challenge because the Americans have followed a policy of engagement with China for four decades. They entered China with investments, they accepted university students and PhD candidates from China. Now there is a strategic rivalry between the two countries and it will continue even after the election.
How should we work with China?
We should look at how Germany does it, because they have more business with China. They have more to win and more to lose. Germany was the only country in the EU to establish a strategy regarding China a year ago, we do not have one. Economic relations with China at this stage are welcome. Until President Duda's visit to China there was a hybrid war on the Polish-Belarusian border. One month later no one mentions said border anymore. This should be remembered.
There is a plan to introduce a law in Poland to make economic relations with China much more difficult, by declaring it to be a high-risk country. What is your opinion about it?
It will probably be passed because of pressure from the allies. As long as the war in Ukraine continues, these relations will be difficult.
Should this law sever all economic relations?
No, that would be stupid. You cannot cut out the second most important economic player in the world. Especially if you look at the structure of our trade. Such a law would be counter-productive, but most people probably do not share my opinion.
